Dr Kesten Green 

Forecasting Principles site

Conflict Forecasting & Terrorism Forecasting site

Public Policy Forecasting site

Curriculum Vitae

You can access many of my papers on SSRN at: http://ssrn.com/author=343225

• Managerial economics
• Forecasting methods

International Institute of Forecasters (IIF)

International Association for Conflict Management (IACM)

Society for Judgment and Decision Making (SJDM)

Decision Analysis Society

Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)

PhD (VUW)

• evidence-based forecasting methods
• survey research methods
• forecasting decisions; the effects of role, interaction, and conflict on decision making; forecasting for negotiations and strategy in business and warfare
• judgmental forecasting methods; the use of analogies in forecasting
• forecasting for public policy

Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2012). Evidence on the Effects of Mandatory Disclaimers in Advertising. Journal of Public Policy and Marketing, 293-304. [With commentary, 305-324]

Armstrong, J. S. & Green, K. C. (2012). Should we put a price on free speech? Journal of Public Policy and Marketing, 325. [Reply to commentators]

Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2012). Have the courts protected free speech for business people?  JPP&M Internet Appendix. 

Armstrong, J. S., Green, K. C., & Soon, W. (2011). Research on forecasting for the manmade global warming alarm. Energy and Environment, 22, 1091-1104. [Testimony to U.S. House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology]

Green, K. C., Graefe, A. & Armstrong, J. S. (2011). Forecasting principles. Part 6, 527-534 in Lovric, M. (ed.), International Encyclopedia of Statistical Science. Springer.

Graefe, A., Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2011). Forecasting. In Gass, S. & Fu, M. (Eds.), Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science (3rd Edition). Springer [In press].

Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2011). Role thinking: Standing in other people’s shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts. International Journal of Forecasting, 27, 69-80.

Armstrong, J. S., Green, K. C., Jones, R., & Wright, M. (2010). Predicting elections from politicians’ faces. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 22, 511-522.

Green, K. C., Armstrong, J. S., & Soon, W. (2009). Validity of climate change forecasting for public policy decision making. International Journal of Forecasting, 25, 826-832.

Armstrong, J. S., Green, K. C., & Soon, W. (2008). Polar bear population forecasts: A public-policy forecasting audit. Interfaces (with commentary), 38, 382-404.

Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2007). Global warming: Forecasts by scientists versus scientific forecasts. Energy and Environment, 18, 997-1021.

Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2007). Structured analogies for forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, 23, 365-376.

Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2007). The value of expertise for forecasting decisions in conflicts. Interfaces, 37, 287-299.

Armstrong, J. S. & Green, K. C. (2007). Competitor-oriented objectives: The myth of market share. International Journal of Business, 12 (1), 117-136.

Green, K. C. (2005). Game theory, simulated interaction, and unaided judgement for forecasting decisions in conflicts: Further evidence. International Journal of Forecasting, 21, 463-472.

Green, K. C. (2002). Forecasting decisions in conflict situations: a comparison of game theory, role-playing, and unaided judgement. International Journal of Forecasting, 18, 321-344.

I am able to provide media comment in the following areas of expertise:

Discipline: Management

• Forecasting for decision making